Vaclav Smil's Numbers Don't Lie is a collection of 71 short essays, each built on a single quantitative insight. The premise is simple: numbers are more reliable than narratives, but only if you understand what they mean in context.
People
- Infant mortality is a more discerning indicator of quality of life than income averages or the Human Development Index.
- The easiest way to improve a child's chances of growing taller is for them to drink more milk.
- Happiness: if you can't fit into the top 10 (Nordic, Dutch, Swiss, Kiwi, or Canadian), convert to Catholicism and start learning Spanish.
Countries
- EU vs USA: 27 of the top 30 countries in quality of life are European.
- UK: Once the unrivaled inventor of modern manufacturing — now deindustrialized. Per capita GDP is now just over half of the Irish mean.
- China's 1978 economic modernization mirrors Japan's trajectory in the 1980s. Air/water pollution, aging population, limited gas resources.
- Mean duration of empires: 220 years. Longest: Mesopotamian Elam at 10 centuries.
Machines and design
- The 1880s were the decade that shaped modernity: electricity, internal combustion engines, lightbulbs, transformers, power plants.
- Moore's law held for decades, but innovations are now slower.
- There are fundamental differences between accumulated data, useful information, and insightful knowledge.
Food
- Nitrogen is the most important macronutrient for crops. Synthetic ammonia (solid urea) is what feeds the world.
- In the US, food enough for ~230 million people was wasted in 2020 alone.
- Japan's longevity secret: remarkably moderate food consumption — 25% less than US/France. The Chinese precept: hara hachi bun me — belly eight parts full.
Environment
- Cattle zoo-mass is now more than 50% larger than human biomass.
- Mobile phone production (annual) consumes as much energy as New Zealand uses in a year.
- The quest for untested technical fixes is the curse of energy policy. Why not start with what is proven? Triple-glazed windows cost 15% more than double panes but have dramatically longer payback.
The throughline
Numbers may not lie, but individual perceptions of them differ.
Smil's work is a masterclass in calibrating intuition with data. Recommended for anyone who's ever argued about the state of the world at dinner.
Originally published on Medium. Check out my bookshelf on Goodreads.